ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty was assessed using the global threshold of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at this level increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise positioned Pakistan as the primary contributor to the surge in extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together comprise another 47% of individuals living below the $3 poverty threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations make up roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, the region hosts about 14% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the only region with a larger share. MENAAP remains unique in that poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
The situation in Pakistan also worsened when measured against the higher $4.20 daily income threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of people below this line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. In 2024, approximately 48% of the population was below this threshold, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional analysis attributed the deterioration to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, rising inflation, currency depreciation, and ongoing economic adjustments, all contributing to the country’s worsening poverty indicators.
Poverty levels rise after consecutive economic shocks
Earlier in 2026, new household survey data prompted a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. The updated figures increased MENAAP’s estimated 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This adjustment added roughly 21 million people to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty levels remain persistently high. The latest projections estimate GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027. Consequently, inflation in 2027 is projected to surpass that of 2026, even as the economy continues to expand.
Reclassification impacts regional poverty comparisons
The 48% figure is also a result of a statistical adjustment that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank’s classification system shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not modify its geographic identity or income level. Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to the Finance Minister, explained that the new grouping influenced regional poverty data because Pakistan’s sizable population was now included in MENAAP calculations. This classification change impacts how the region’s poverty distribution is presented.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026, projecting a regional contraction of 2.1% following a 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced challenges due to conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. Nonetheless, developing oil importers like Pakistan proved relatively resilient, with the forecast indicating 4.3% growth for this group in 2026. Ongoing increases in food and energy prices continued to strain household budgets across many countries.